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Poisson rates TSV Hartberg at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Austria Klagenfurt travel to PROfertil ARENA to take on TSV Hartberg. The game is scheduled for Sunday 16 February 2025, 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, TSV Hartberg stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
TSV Hartberg's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at PROfertil ARENA this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Austria Klagenfurt — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Austria Klagenfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Austria Klagenfurt have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, TSV Hartberg have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for TSV Hartberg, 3 for Austria Klagenfurt and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
TSV Hartberg in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Austria Klagenfurt in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 57% versus Austria Klagenfurt 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 59% | Austria Klagenfurt 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.98 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.968 / defence 0.958 | Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.767 / defence 1.438. League average goals — home 1.424 / away 1.205. Austria Klagenfurt bring a strong defensive rating of 1.438 — this is suppressing TSV Hartberg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 TSV Hartberg games / 39 Austria Klagenfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 61% | Draw 26% | Austria Klagenfurt 14%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 1.64 | Draw 3.85 | Austria Klagenfurt 7.14. The model has a clear lean to TSV Hartberg (61%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Austria Klagenfurt lead the H2H ledger, but TSV Hartberg carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates TSV Hartberg as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: TSV Hartberg 70% | Austria Klagenfurt 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: PROfertil ARENA • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Feb 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (7 meetings): TSV Hartberg 1W | Draws 3 | Austria Klagenfurt 3W • Goals trend: 3.43 goals/game | Total H2H goals: TSV Hartberg 10 – 14 Austria Klagenfurt • H2H markets: BTTS 71% | Over 2.5 71% | Win rates: TSV Hartberg 14% / Draw 43% / Austria Klagenfurt 43% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H vs Poisson divergence: H2H favours Austria Klagenfurt (historical win rate 43%) but Poisson model rates TSV Hartberg as more likely (home 61% / draw 26% / away 14%) — current season form and strength ratings are overriding the historical pattern • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 3.43 goals/game (71% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 2.87 (55% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS corroboration: H2H BTTS rate 71%, Poisson BTTS probability 53% — BTTS Yes supported by both historical and model data
📈 Recent Form
• TSV Hartberg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-W-D • Austria Klagenfurt (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-D • TSV Hartberg home split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | CS 2 • Austria Klagenfurt away split: 0.70 PPG from 10 | GF 0.60 / GA 2.60 | CS 2 • Form edge: TSV Hartberg lead by 0.70 PPG (1.20 vs 0.50) • xG vs form (TSV Hartberg): Poisson projects 1.98 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.10 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (Austria Klagenfurt): Poisson projects 0.89 xG vs form scoring rate of 0.60 — model rates visitors higher than form alone implies, noting a favourable attack-vs-defence matchup • Goals contradiction — form projects only ~1.9 goals/game (Under signal) but Poisson xG sum is 2.87 (55% Over probability) — underlying attack/defence strengths differ from surface-level results • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~50% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 53% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on TSV Hartberg — TSV Hartberg at 61% Poisson win probability
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 61% | Draw 26% | Austria Klagenfurt 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 53% | xG TSV Hartberg 1.98 / Austria Klagenfurt 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.968 / def 0.958 | Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.767 / def 1.438 | league avg home 1.424 / away 1.205 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (61%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Austria Klagenfurt xG
53%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 16 February 2025 at PROfertil ARENA.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt?
TSV Hartberg 1 - 1 Austria Klagenfurt.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt being played?
The match is being played at PROfertil ARENA.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 61% chance of winning, Austria Klagenfurt a 14% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt?
• Record (7 meetings): TSV Hartberg 1W | Draws 3 | Austria Klagenfurt 3W • Goals trend: 3.43 goals/game | Total H2H goals: TSV Hartberg 10 – 14 Austria Klagenfurt • H2H markets: BTTS 71% | Over 2.5 71% | Win rates: TSV Hartberg 14% / Draw 43% / Austria Klagenfurt 43% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H vs Poisson divergence: H2H favours Austria Klagenfurt (historical win rate 43%) but Poisson model rates TSV Hartberg as more likely (home 61% / draw 26% / away 14%) — current season form and strength ratings are overriding the historical pattern • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 3.43 goals/game (71% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 2.87 (55% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS corroboration: H2H BTTS rate 71%, Poisson BTTS probability 53% — BTTS Yes supported by both historical and model data
What form are TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt in?
• TSV Hartberg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-W-D • Austria Klagenfurt (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-D • TSV Hartberg home split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | CS 2 • Austria Klagenfurt away split: 0.70 PPG from 10 | GF 0.60 / GA 2.60 | CS 2 • Form edge: TSV Hartberg lead by 0.70 PPG (1.20 vs 0.50) • xG vs form (TSV Hartberg): Poisson projects 1.98 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.10 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (Austria Klagenfurt): Poisson projects 0.89 xG vs form scoring rate of 0.60 — model rates visitors higher than form alone implies, noting a favourable attack-vs-defence matchup • Goals contradiction — form projects only ~1.9 goals/game (Under signal) but Poisson xG sum is 2.87 (55% Over probability) — underlying attack/defence strengths differ from surface-level results • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~50% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 53% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on TSV Hartberg — TSV Hartberg at 61% Poisson win probability
What do the betting odds say about TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture