TSV Hartberg 1-1 Austria Klagenfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates TSV Hartberg at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Austria Klagenfurt travel to PROfertil ARENA to take on TSV Hartberg. The game is scheduled for Sunday 16 February 2025, 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, TSV Hartberg stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
TSV Hartberg's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at PROfertil ARENA this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Austria Klagenfurt — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Austria Klagenfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Austria Klagenfurt have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, TSV Hartberg have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for TSV Hartberg, 3 for Austria Klagenfurt and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
TSV Hartberg in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Austria Klagenfurt in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 57% versus Austria Klagenfurt 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 59% | Austria Klagenfurt 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.98 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.968 / defence 0.958 | Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.767 / defence 1.438. League average goals — home 1.424 / away 1.205. Austria Klagenfurt bring a strong defensive rating of 1.438 — this is suppressing TSV Hartberg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 TSV Hartberg games / 39 Austria Klagenfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 61% | Draw 26% | Austria Klagenfurt 14%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 1.64 | Draw 3.85 | Austria Klagenfurt 7.14. The model has a clear lean to TSV Hartberg (61%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Austria Klagenfurt lead the H2H ledger, but TSV Hartberg carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates TSV Hartberg as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: TSV Hartberg 70% | Austria Klagenfurt 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: PROfertil ARENA • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Feb 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 61% | Draw 26% | Austria Klagenfurt 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 53% | xG TSV Hartberg 1.98 / Austria Klagenfurt 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.968 / def 0.958 | Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.767 / def 1.438 | league avg home 1.424 / away 1.205 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Austria Klagenfurt xG
53%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 16 February 2025 at PROfertil ARENA.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt?
TSV Hartberg 1 - 1 Austria Klagenfurt.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt being played?
The match is being played at PROfertil ARENA.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 61% chance of winning, Austria Klagenfurt a 14% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt?
Record (7 meetings): TSV Hartberg 1W | Draws 3 | Austria Klagenfurt 3W.
What form are TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. Austria Klagenfurt (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
TSV Hartberg's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Austria Klagenfurt's defensive record (1.44x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.98. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Klagenfurt's attack versus TSV Hartberg's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
61%
1.65
26%
3.91
14%
7.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.87
0.89
Austria Klagenfurt xG
1.65
61%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
7.27
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
14%
7.25
Win to Nil
25%
3.99
2%
52.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.3 | 10.0 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 0.89 for Austria Klagenfurt, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 49 outings, TSV Hartberg have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 17W 13D 19L record — L-D-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Austria Klagenfurt's form line: 13W 16D 20L from 49 games, 1.12 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-D. The sample for Austria Klagenfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: TSV Hartberg on 1.31 PPG, Austria Klagenfurt on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, TSV Hartberg have posted 1.38 PPG from 24 outings (9W 6D 9L).
On the road, Austria Klagenfurt have gone 6W 6D 12L from 24 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Austria Klagenfurt are on 1.10 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Blended
Austria Klagenfurt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 17W 13D 19L in their last 49 games (1.31 PPG), while Austria Klagenfurt have gone 13W 16D 20L in their last 49 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Austria Klagenfurt away?
TSV Hartberg's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.38 PPG; Austria Klagenfurt away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Aug 2023, when Austria Klagenfurt won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
TSV Hartberg's record when hosting Austria Klagenfurt specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
TSV Hartberg
4
Draws
4
Austria Klagenfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt?
From 10 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 2, Austria Klagenfurt have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2025, when Austria Klagenfurt 0-1 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt?
Austria Klagenfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Austria Klagenfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 58%, Austria Klagenfurt 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (TSV Hartberg) and 54% (Austria Klagenfurt).
On the defensive side: Austria Klagenfurt in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Austria Klagenfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play Austria Klagenfurt?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of TSV Hartberg's recent matches and 38% of Austria Klagenfurt's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of TSV Hartberg's recent games and 54% of Austria Klagenfurt's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Austria Klagenfurt in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at PROfertil ARENA, Regular Season - 18, as TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.98 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 0.89 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. TSV Hartberg fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.97 / defence 0.96 against Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.77 / defence 1.44, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 61% | Draw 26% | Austria Klagenfurt 14%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 61%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 59%, Austria Klagenfurt 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Austria Klagenfurt's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — TSV Hartberg 1.31 PPG, Austria Klagenfurt 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Austria Klagenfurt (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.