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Wolfsberger AC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Sturm Graz.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Wolfsberger AC beat Sturm Graz 1-3 at Merkur-Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.13 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.40 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Wolfsberger AC outscored their 1.40 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 0.90 / defence 0.85 against Wolfsberger AC attack 1.22 / defence 0.94, drawn from 31/32 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 30% | Draw 27% | Wolfsberger AC 43%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 61%, Wolfsberger AC 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sturm Graz's trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sturm Graz 2.05 PPG, Wolfsberger AC 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wolfsberger AC win broke the near-deadlock. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.37 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.89 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights