Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Sturm Graz at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees TSV Hartberg travel to Merkur-Arena to take on Sturm Graz. The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 February 2027, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sturm Graz stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sturm Graz have posted 4W 6D 0L at Merkur-Arena — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, TSV Hartberg have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
TSV Hartberg's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Sturm Graz) versus 1.70 (TSV Hartberg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Sturm Graz have dominated this rivalry, winning 7 of 10 past contests while TSV Hartberg have managed just 0 wins.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2026, ended 2–0 with Sturm Graz winning.
The historical record gives Sturm Graz a meaningful edge here — 7 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Sturm Graz in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
TSV Hartberg in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sturm Graz 58% versus TSV Hartberg 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 42% | TSV Hartberg 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 1.73 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 1.166 / defence 0.915 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.279 / defence 0.827. League average goals — home 1.789 / away 1.397. TSV Hartberg have an above-average attack strength of 1.279 — the away xG of 1.64 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 33 Sturm Graz games / 33 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 38% | Draw 29% | TSV Hartberg 34%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | TSV Hartberg 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 1.64) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sturm Graz at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.36 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: Sturm Graz 70% | TSV Hartberg 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Merkur-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 38% | Draw 29% | TSV Hartberg 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 69% | xG Sturm Graz 1.73 / TSV Hartberg 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 1.166 / def 0.915 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.279 / def 0.827 | league avg home 1.789 / away 1.397 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
1.64
TSV Hartberg xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 27 February 2027 at Merkur-Arena.
Where is Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Merkur-Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 38% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg?
Record (10 meetings): Sturm Graz 7W | Draws 3 | TSV Hartberg 0W.
What form are Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg in?
Sturm Graz (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sturm Graz's attack at 1.17x the league average against TSV Hartberg's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, TSV Hartberg's attack versus Sturm Graz's defence, projects 1.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
38%
2.66
29%
3.49
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
3.36
1.64
TSV Hartberg xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.24
Clean Sheet
19%
5.13
18%
5.61
Win to Nil
7%
13.68
6%
16.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 5.7 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 9.8 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.4 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.9 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 1.64 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 3.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sturm Graz's recent record stands at 21W 12D 10L from 43 games, a 1.74 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
TSV Hartberg, meanwhile, have gone 15W 14D 14L across 43 games — 1.37 PPG, with D-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sturm Graz on 1.74 PPG, TSV Hartberg on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sturm Graz have managed 9W 7D 5L from 21 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
TSV Hartberg's away record stands at 8W 8D 5L across 21 trips, a 1.52 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Sturm Graz are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.40 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 21W 12D 10L in their last 43 games (1.74 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 15W 14D 14L in their last 43 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sturm Graz at home or TSV Hartberg away?
Sturm Graz's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sturm Graz at home: 1.62 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Sturm Graz or TSV Hartberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, TSV Hartberg in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 8 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Sturm Graz have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Sturm Graz's record when hosting TSV Hartberg specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Sturm Graz
3
Draws
0
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, Sturm Graz have won 7, TSV Hartberg have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when TSV Hartberg 0-2 Sturm Graz.
Who has won more matches between Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sturm Graz see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sturm Graz 62%, TSV Hartberg 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Sturm Graz) and 48% (TSV Hartberg).
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; TSV Hartberg in 38%; TSV Hartberg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sturm Graz play TSV Hartberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Sturm Graz's recent matches and 48% of TSV Hartberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Sturm Graz's recent games and 48% of TSV Hartberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
Sturm Graz have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.