Sturm Graz 1-1 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sturm Graz at 53% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
TSV Hartberg travel to Merkur Arena to take on Sturm Graz in Bundesliga (Championship Round - 8). The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 May 2024 at 14:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Sturm Graz stand at 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters, Sturm Graz have posted 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, TSV Hartberg have recorded 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
TSV Hartberg's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Sturm Graz carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.30 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Sturm Graz have won 1, TSV Hartberg 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 14 Apr 2024, ended Sturm Graz 3–1 TSV Hartberg — a Sturm Graz win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Sturm Graz in-play tendencies (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 75%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
TSV Hartberg in-play tendencies (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sturm Graz 54% versus TSV Hartberg 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 49% | TSV Hartberg 64%). Note also that TSV Hartberg surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Sturm Graz recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 75% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 1.64 xG and TSV Hartberg 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 1.172 / defence 0.842 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.097 / defence 1.043. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.013. Data: built from Sturm Graz's last 44 games and TSV Hartberg's last 44.
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 53% | Draw 27% | TSV Hartberg 20%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 1.90 | Draw 3.69 | TSV Hartberg 4.93. Sturm Graz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sturm Graz at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 53% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Sturm Graz 20% (last 10 home games) | TSV Hartberg 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Round - 8 | Venue: Merkur Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 53% | Draw 27% | TSV Hartberg 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Sturm Graz 1.64 / TSV Hartberg 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 1.172 / def 0.842 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.097 / def 1.043 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
0.94
TSV Hartberg xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg FAQs
What time does Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Merkur Arena.
What was the final score in Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg?
Sturm Graz 1 - 1 TSV Hartberg.
Where is Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg is a Bundesliga fixture (Championship Round - 8) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 53% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 20% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sturm Graz's attack at 1.17x the league average against TSV Hartberg's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, TSV Hartberg's attack versus Sturm Graz's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sturm Graz's last 44 games and TSV Hartberg's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
53%
1.90
27%
3.69
20%
4.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
2.57
0.94
TSV Hartberg xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
4.93
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
19%
5.14
Win to Nil
21%
4.85
4%
25.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 11.7 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 0.94 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sturm Graz's recent record stands at 38W 14D 9L from 61 games, a 2.10 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five.
TSV Hartberg, meanwhile, have gone 20W 14D 27L across 61 games — 1.21 PPG, with D-L-W-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sturm Graz by 0.89 — a real, if not enormous, edge over TSV Hartberg heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sturm Graz have managed 21W 4D 5L from their last 30 home games — 2.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
TSV Hartberg's away record stands at 9W 7D 14L across their last 30 away games, a 1.13 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sturm Graz are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.36 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Defensively: Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Current Season
TSV Hartberg
Current Season
Sturm Graz (Home) vs TSV Hartberg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sturm Graz
Current Season
TSV Hartberg
Current Season
❓ Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg Form FAQs
What form are Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 38W 14D 9L in their last 61 games (2.10 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 20W 14D 27L in their last 61 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sturm Graz at home or TSV Hartberg away?
Sturm Graz's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sturm Graz at home: 2.23 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Sturm Graz or TSV Hartberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, TSV Hartberg in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from March 2024. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 8 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Sturm Graz have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Sturm Graz's record when hosting TSV Hartberg specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Sturm Graz
3
Draws
0
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sturm Graz have won 7, TSV Hartberg have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 August 2026: TSV Hartberg 0-2 Sturm Graz.
Who has won more matches between Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sturm Graz 43%, TSV Hartberg 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Sturm Graz) and 63% (TSV Hartberg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Sturm Graz's recent matches and 57% of TSV Hartberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Sturm Graz's matches and 63% of TSV Hartberg's.
Do Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Sturm Graz's recent matches and 73% of TSV Hartberg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Merkur Arena, Championship Round - 8, as Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.64 xG and TSV Hartberg 0.94 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 1.17 / defence 0.84 against TSV Hartberg attack 1.10 / defence 1.04, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 53% | Draw 27% | TSV Hartberg 20%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 49%, TSV Hartberg 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sturm Graz's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.