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Prediction vindicated as Sturm Graz edge out Ried 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sturm Graz beat Ried 1-0 at Merkur-Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.54 xG and Ried 1.47 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ried landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 0.94 / defence 1.18 against Ried attack 0.95 / defence 1.21, drawn from 39/17 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 39% | Draw 24% | Ried 36%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 59%, Ried 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sturm Graz's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Ried's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sturm Graz 1.65 PPG, Ried 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sturm Graz win broke the near-deadlock. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line. Ried (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights