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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Rapid Vienna defy the odds to beat Sturm Graz 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rapid Vienna beat Sturm Graz 1-2 at Merkur-Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.83 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.20 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sturm Graz fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Rapid Vienna outscored their 1.20 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 1.15 / defence 1.02 against Rapid Vienna attack 0.98 / defence 1.00, drawn from 23/23 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 52% | Draw 23% | Rapid Vienna 25%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Rapid Vienna win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 64%, Rapid Vienna 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sturm Graz's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Rapid Vienna's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.39. Form was overturned, with Rapid Vienna winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.69 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights