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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sturm Graz cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Rapid Vienna.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sturm Graz beat Rapid Vienna 2-0 at Merkur Arena, Championship Round - 2, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 2.49 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.19 xG, a combined 3.68. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Rapid Vienna landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 1.53 / defence 1.08 against Rapid Vienna attack 0.92 / defence 1.02, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 64% | Draw 21% | Rapid Vienna 15%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 64%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 56%, Rapid Vienna 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sturm Graz's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Rapid Vienna's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 1.44. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights