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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lask Linz cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Sturm Graz.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lask Linz beat Sturm Graz 1-3 at Merkur-Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.02 xG and Lask Linz 1.02 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Lask Linz outscored their 1.02 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 0.86 / defence 0.96 against Lask Linz attack 0.81 / defence 0.85, drawn from 34/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 35% | Draw 31% | Lask Linz 35%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Lask Linz win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 61%, Lask Linz 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sturm Graz's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Lask Linz's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sturm Graz 1.93 PPG, Lask Linz 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lask Linz win broke the near-deadlock. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.24 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lask Linz (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights