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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sturm Graz cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Lask Linz.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sturm Graz beat Lask Linz 4-2 at Merkur Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.80 xG and Lask Linz 1.21 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Sturm Graz beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 1.43 / defence 1.02 against Lask Linz attack 0.99 / defence 0.82, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 48% | Draw 30% | Lask Linz 23%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 57%, Lask Linz 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sturm Graz's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Lask Linz's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.57. Form held, and they took the win. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.08 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lask Linz (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights