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Shock result as Sturm Graz defy the odds to beat Grazer AK 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sturm Graz beat Grazer AK 2-1 at Merkur-Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.31 xG and Grazer AK 1.32 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 0.86 / defence 1.25 against Grazer AK attack 0.76 / defence 1.13, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 37% | Draw 26% | Grazer AK 37%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 62%, Grazer AK 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sturm Graz's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Grazer AK's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 0.91. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights