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Sturm Graz cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FC BW Linz.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sturm Graz beat FC BW Linz 2-0 at Merkur Arena, Championship Round - 4, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 2.04 xG and FC BW Linz 1.23 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. FC BW Linz landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 1.49 / defence 1.07 against FC BW Linz attack 0.96 / defence 0.86, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 54% | Draw 26% | FC BW Linz 20%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 56%, FC BW Linz 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sturm Graz's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

FC BW Linz's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.14. That form edge translated into the three points. FC BW Linz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights