Sign in Register
🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Bundesliga · Championship Round - 4

Kick-off

Sun 20 Apr 2025

13:30

Venue

Merkur Arena

Competition

Bundesliga

Austria

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Sturm Graz Win

54%

Sturm Graz

1.86

26%

Draw

3.87

20%

FC BW Linz

4.91

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

2 – 1

9.7%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

9.5%

Draw

2 – 0

7.9%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

2.04

Sturm Graz xG

Total xG

3.28

1.23

FC BW Linz xG

54%
26%
20%
Sturm GrazDrawFC BW Linz

1.86

54%

Home win

3.87

26%

Draw

4.91

20%

Away win

Goals Markets

84%

Over 1.5

1.19

16%

Under 1.5

6.25

64%

Over 2.5

1.56

36%

Under 2.5

2.78

41%

Over 3.5

2.44

59%

Under 3.5

1.69

23%

Over 4.5

4.35

77%

Under 4.5

1.30

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

64%

BTTS Yes

1.56

36%

BTTS No

2.77

Clean Sheet

29%

Sturm Graz

3.43

13%

FC BW Linz

7.72

Win to Nil

16%

Sturm Graz

6.38

3%

FC BW Linz

37.91

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 3.8 4.7 2.9 1.2 0.4 0.1
1 7.7 9.5 5.9 2.4 0.7 0.2
2 7.9 9.7 6.0 2.5 0.8 0.2
3 5.4 6.6 4.1 1.7 0.5 0.1
4 2.7 3.4 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.1
5 1.1 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 2.044
λ Away (xG) 1.233
Total xG 3.277
League avg home goals 1.597
League avg away goals 1.200
Sturm Graz attack strength 1.489
Sturm Graz defence strength 1.075
FC BW Linz attack strength 0.956
FC BW Linz defence strength 0.859
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 44 / 44