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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Austria Vienna defy the odds to beat Sturm Graz 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Austria Vienna beat Sturm Graz 0-1 at Merkur-Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.72 xG and Austria Vienna 1.41 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sturm Graz fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 1.08 / defence 1.08 against Austria Vienna attack 1.01 / defence 1.11, drawn from 26/27 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 45% | Draw 23% | Austria Vienna 32%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Austria Vienna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 67%, Austria Vienna 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sturm Graz's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Austria Vienna's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sturm Graz 2.00 PPG, Austria Vienna 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Vienna win broke the near-deadlock. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.59 scoring average — below par going forward. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights