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Shock result as Austria Vienna defy the odds to beat Sturm Graz 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Austria Vienna beat Sturm Graz 0-1 at Merkur Arena, Championship Round - 6, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.89 xG and Austria Vienna 1.46 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sturm Graz fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 1.47 / defence 1.07 against Austria Vienna attack 1.13 / defence 0.81, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 46% | Draw 27% | Austria Vienna 28%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Austria Vienna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 56%, Austria Vienna 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sturm Graz's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Austria Vienna's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sturm Graz 2.08 PPG, Austria Vienna 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Vienna win broke the near-deadlock. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights