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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna finished level at 2-2 at Merkur Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.94 xG and Austria Vienna 1.17 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Austria Vienna outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 1.50 / defence 0.98 against Austria Vienna attack 1.00 / defence 0.84, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 55% | Draw 23% | Austria Vienna 22%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 52%, Austria Vienna 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sturm Graz's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Austria Vienna's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sturm Graz 2.15 PPG, Austria Vienna 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights