Sturm Graz 7-0 Austria Klagenfurt – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Sturm Graz (70%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sturm Graz face Austria Klagenfurt.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Merkur Arena plays host to Sturm Graz versus Austria Klagenfurt in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Saturday 23 November 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sturm Graz's overall Bundesliga record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sturm Graz's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Merkur Arena this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Austria Klagenfurt (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Austria Klagenfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Austria Klagenfurt's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Sturm Graz's favour (2.30 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Sturm Graz, who have won 7 of the last 9 meetings against Austria Klagenfurt — a 1D 1W return for the visitors.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2024, ended 2–0 with Sturm Graz winning.
The historical record gives Sturm Graz a meaningful edge here — 7 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Sturm Graz — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Austria Klagenfurt — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sturm Graz 54% versus Austria Klagenfurt 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 50% | Austria Klagenfurt 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 2.56 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 1.424 / defence 1.108 | Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.853 / defence 1.193. League average goals — home 1.507 / away 1.098. Sturm Graz carry an above-average attack strength of 1.424 — their λ of 2.56 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 35 Sturm Graz games / 34 Austria Klagenfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 70% | Draw 17% | Austria Klagenfurt 13%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 1.43 | Draw 5.88 | Austria Klagenfurt 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Sturm Graz (70%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.60. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.60 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.56 / 1.04) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sturm Graz at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.60 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sturm Graz 50% | Austria Klagenfurt 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Merkur Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Nov 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 70% | Draw 17% | Austria Klagenfurt 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 60% | xG Sturm Graz 2.56 / Austria Klagenfurt 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 1.424 / def 1.108 | Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.853 / def 1.193 | league avg home 1.507 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (70%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.56
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Austria Klagenfurt xG
60%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt kick off?
Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Merkur Arena.
What was the final score in Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Sturm Graz 7 - 0 Austria Klagenfurt.
Where is Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt part of?
Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 70% chance of winning, Austria Klagenfurt a 13% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Sturm Graz and Austria Klagenfurt will score (BTTS).
Will Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Austria Klagenfurt?
Record (9 meetings): Sturm Graz 7W | Draws 1 | Austria Klagenfurt 1W.
What form are Sturm Graz and Austria Klagenfurt in?
Sturm Graz (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Austria Klagenfurt (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sturm Graz's attacking strength (1.42x league average) is weighed against Austria Klagenfurt's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.56. Flip it around — Austria Klagenfurt's attack (0.85x) against Sturm Graz's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 35/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.0%), 1-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
70%
1.43
17%
5.77
13%
7.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.0%
Home win
3 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.56
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
3.60
1.04
Austria Klagenfurt xG
1.43
70%
Home win
5.77
17%
Draw
7.79
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
8%
12.95
Win to Nil
25%
4.05
1%
100.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.0 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.6 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and Austria Klagenfurt expected to score?
The model projects 2.56 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 1.04 for Austria Klagenfurt, a combined total of 3.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sturm Graz come into this having played 44 games, going 27W 12D 5L for 2.11 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-W. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Austria Klagenfurt sit at 1.23 PPG from 44 outings (13W 15D 16L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Austria Klagenfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sturm Graz carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.88 PPG clear of Austria Klagenfurt — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Sturm Graz's home form reads 14W 5D 3L across 22 games on their own ground, a 2.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Austria Klagenfurt have taken 1.23 points per game from 22 outings (7W 6D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sturm Graz are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Austria Klagenfurt are on 1.20 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Defensively: Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Blended
Austria Klagenfurt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sturm Graz and Austria Klagenfurt in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 27W 12D 5L in their last 44 games (2.11 PPG), while Austria Klagenfurt have gone 13W 15D 16L in their last 44 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sturm Graz at home or Austria Klagenfurt away?
Sturm Graz's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sturm Graz at home: 2.14 PPG; Austria Klagenfurt away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Sturm Graz or Austria Klagenfurt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Austria Klagenfurt in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 November 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Sturm Graz go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sturm Graz won 7-0 on 23 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sturm Graz have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Austria Klagenfurt — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Sturm Graz
1
Draws
1
Austria Klagenfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Austria Klagenfurt?
From 10 meetings on record, Sturm Graz have won 8, Austria Klagenfurt have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and Austria Klagenfurt last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2024, when Sturm Graz 7-0 Austria Klagenfurt.
Who has won more matches between Sturm Graz and Austria Klagenfurt?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Austria Klagenfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sturm Graz 41%, Austria Klagenfurt 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Sturm Graz) and 50% (Austria Klagenfurt).
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Austria Klagenfurt in 32%; Austria Klagenfurt in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / Austria Klagenfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sturm Graz play Austria Klagenfurt?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Sturm Graz's recent matches and 41% of Austria Klagenfurt's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Sturm Graz's recent games and 50% of Austria Klagenfurt's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sturm Graz and Austria Klagenfurt tend to score early?
Sturm Graz have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Austria Klagenfurt in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sturm Graz run riot with a 7-0 hammering of Austria Klagenfurt.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat Austria Klagenfurt 7-0 at Merkur Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 2.56 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 1.04 xG, a combined 3.60. The scoreboard read 7-0 for 7 actual goals. Sturm Graz beat their projection by 4.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Austria Klagenfurt landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 1.42 / defence 1.11 against Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.85 / defence 1.19, drawn from 35/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 70% | Draw 17% | Austria Klagenfurt 13%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 70%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 50%, Austria Klagenfurt 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sturm Graz's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Austria Klagenfurt's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.23. That form edge translated into the three points. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) scored 7 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm. Austria Klagenfurt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 7 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.