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SCR Altach and WSG Wattens share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Cashpoint-Arena, Regular Season - 7, as SCR Altach and WSG Wattens drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 1.42 xG and WSG Wattens 0.94 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 0.79 / defence 0.76 against WSG Wattens attack 0.94 / defence 1.26, drawn from 28/27 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 48% | Draw 27% | WSG Wattens 25%, with SCR Altach to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 35%, WSG Wattens 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SCR Altach's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

WSG Wattens's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SCR Altach 1.00 PPG, WSG Wattens 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights