SCR Altach 1-1 WSG Wattens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SCR Altach at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SCR Altach and WSG Wattens meet at Cashpoint-Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 21 September 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SCR Altach have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: W D D L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. SCR Altach have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Cashpoint-Arena, SCR Altach have gone 3W 6D 1L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Cashpoint-Arena.
WSG Wattens (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W D D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. WSG Wattens have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, WSG Wattens have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — SCR Altach lead 2W to 3W over the last 5 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2025, ended 3–0 with SCR Altach winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
SCR Altach goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
WSG Wattens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 43% versus WSG Wattens 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 35% | WSG Wattens 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.42 xG and WSG Wattens 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.788 / defence 0.758 | WSG Wattens attack 0.941 / defence 1.264. League average goals — home 1.428 / away 1.318. SCR Altach's attack strength of 0.788 is below the league average — the 1.42 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. WSG Wattens bring a strong defensive rating of 1.264 — this is suppressing SCR Altach's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. SCR Altach's defence rating of 0.758 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 28 SCR Altach games / 27 WSG Wattens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SCR Altach 48% | Draw 27% | WSG Wattens 25%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | WSG Wattens 4.00. SCR Altach hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SCR Altach at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SCR Altach if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: SCR Altach 40% | WSG Wattens 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Cashpoint-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Sep 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SCR Altach 48% | Draw 27% | WSG Wattens 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG SCR Altach 1.42 / WSG Wattens 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: SCR Altach attack 0.788 / def 0.758 | WSG Wattens attack 0.941 / def 1.264 | league avg home 1.428 / away 1.318 • Poisson stance: SCR Altach (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
SCR Altach xG
Expected Goals
0.94
WSG Wattens xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens kick off?
SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 21 September 2025 at Cashpoint-Arena.
What was the final score in SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens?
SCR Altach 1 - 1 WSG Wattens.
Where is SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens being played?
The match is being played at Cashpoint-Arena.
What competition is SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens part of?
SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens?
Our statistical model gives SCR Altach a 48% chance of winning, WSG Wattens a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making SCR Altach the favourite.
Will both teams score in SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both SCR Altach and WSG Wattens will score (BTTS).
Will SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and WSG Wattens?
Record (5 meetings): SCR Altach 2W | Draws 0 | WSG Wattens 3W.
What form are SCR Altach and WSG Wattens in?
SCR Altach (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-D-L-W. WSG Wattens (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
SCR Altach's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against WSG Wattens's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. Flip it around — WSG Wattens's attack (0.94x) against SCR Altach's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 28/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SCR Altach Win
48%
2.07
27%
3.72
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
SCR Altach xG
Total xG
2.36
0.94
WSG Wattens xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
19%
5.31
6%
16.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.6 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.0 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are SCR Altach and WSG Wattens expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for SCR Altach and 0.94 for WSG Wattens, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SCR Altach's recent record stands at 8W 13D 16L from 37 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for SCR Altach, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
WSG Wattens, meanwhile, have gone 9W 11D 17L across 37 games — 1.03 PPG, with W-W-D-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for WSG Wattens, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for SCR Altach against 1.03 for WSG Wattens. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, SCR Altach have managed 4W 9D 5L from 18 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
WSG Wattens's away record stands at 4W 3D 11L across 18 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
SCR Altach are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; WSG Wattens are on 1.22 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SCR Altach
Early Season
WSG Wattens
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SCR Altach and WSG Wattens in coming into this match?
SCR Altach have gone 8W 13D 16L in their last 37 games (1.00 PPG), while WSG Wattens have gone 9W 11D 17L in their last 37 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SCR Altach at home or WSG Wattens away?
SCR Altach's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SCR Altach at home: 1.17 PPG; WSG Wattens away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 7 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SCR Altach won 3-0 on 26 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SCR Altach have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against WSG Wattens — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
SCR Altach
3
Draws
3
WSG Wattens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and WSG Wattens?
From 10 meetings on record, SCR Altach have won 4, WSG Wattens have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SCR Altach and WSG Wattens last play each other?
They last met on 7 August 2026, when SCR Altach 3-1 WSG Wattens.
Who has won more matches between SCR Altach and WSG Wattens?
SCR Altach have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SCR Altach 50%, WSG Wattens 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 28% (SCR Altach) and 67% (WSG Wattens).
On the defensive side: SCR Altach keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; SCR Altach have failed to score in 28% of games; WSG Wattens in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SCR Altach home games / WSG Wattens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SCR Altach play WSG Wattens?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of SCR Altach's games and 61% of WSG Wattens's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of SCR Altach's recent games and 67% of WSG Wattens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SCR Altach and WSG Wattens tend to score early?
SCR Altach have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, WSG Wattens in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SCR Altach and WSG Wattens share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Cashpoint-Arena, Regular Season - 7, as SCR Altach and WSG Wattens drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 1.42 xG and WSG Wattens 0.94 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 0.79 / defence 0.76 against WSG Wattens attack 0.94 / defence 1.26, drawn from 28/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 48% | Draw 27% | WSG Wattens 25%, with SCR Altach to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 35%, WSG Wattens 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SCR Altach's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
WSG Wattens's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SCR Altach 1.00 PPG, WSG Wattens 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.