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SCR Altach cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Wolfsberger AC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SCR Altach beat Wolfsberger AC 3-1 at Cashpoint-Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 1.08 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.67 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. SCR Altach beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 0.88 / defence 0.95 against Wolfsberger AC attack 1.33 / defence 0.92, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 25% | Draw 24% | Wolfsberger AC 51%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a SCR Altach win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 38%, Wolfsberger AC 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SCR Altach's trading profile (45 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (45 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Wolfsberger AC arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 0.89. Form was overturned, with SCR Altach winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SCR Altach (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights