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SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg finished level at 2-2 at Cashpoint-Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 0.99 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.16 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. SCR Altach beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. TSV Hartberg outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 0.77 / defence 0.84 against TSV Hartberg attack 1.00 / defence 0.97, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 31% | Draw 29% | TSV Hartberg 40%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 36%, TSV Hartberg 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SCR Altach's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

TSV Hartberg's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, TSV Hartberg arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SCR Altach (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights