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Poisson rates TSV Hartberg at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg meet at Cashpoint-Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 25 October 2025 at 16:00 UTC.

Current Form

SCR Altach's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, SCR Altach have posted 3W 5D 2L at Cashpoint-Arena — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

TSV Hartberg (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.

TSV Hartberg's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head ledger leans to TSV Hartberg, who have claimed 4 wins from 8 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 4 draws.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 8 previous contests averaged 1.8 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2025, ended 0–2 with TSV Hartberg winning.

It is worth noting that TSV Hartberg have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading & In-Play

SCR Altach — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.

TSV Hartberg — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 45% versus TSV Hartberg 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 36% | TSV Hartberg 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 0.99 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.768 / defence 0.839 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.002 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.334 / away 1.379. SCR Altach's attack strength of 0.768 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 32 SCR Altach games / 32 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SCR Altach 31% | Draw 29% | TSV Hartberg 40%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | TSV Hartberg 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, TSV Hartberg are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.15 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: SCR Altach 40% | TSV Hartberg 30% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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