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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at CASHPOINT Arena, Relegation Round - 4, as SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 1.25 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.01 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 0.75 / defence 1.00 against TSV Hartberg attack 0.84 / defence 1.04, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 39% | Draw 35% | TSV Hartberg 27%, with SCR Altach to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 44%, TSV Hartberg 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SCR Altach's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

TSV Hartberg's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SCR Altach 0.88 PPG, TSV Hartberg 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights