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Stalemate at SCR Altach's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at CASHPOINT Arena, Regular Season - 19, as SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg drew 0-0 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 1.12 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.20 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. SCR Altach fell 1.1 short of their projected output. TSV Hartberg landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 0.81 / defence 1.09 against TSV Hartberg attack 0.90 / defence 0.95, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 31% | Draw 35% | TSV Hartberg 35%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 44%, TSV Hartberg 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SCR Altach's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

TSV Hartberg's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, TSV Hartberg arrived the stronger side — 1.30 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SCR Altach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights