🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as SCR Altach take on TSV Hartberg.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg meet at CASHPOINT Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 23 February 2025 at 13:30 UTC.

Current Form

SCR Altach's overall Bundesliga record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, SCR Altach have posted 1W 4D 5L at CASHPOINT Arena — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

TSV Hartberg (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.

TSV Hartberg's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

TSV Hartberg arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.00 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head ledger leans to TSV Hartberg, who have claimed 3 wins from 5 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 2 draws.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2024, ended 0–2 with TSV Hartberg winning.

It is worth noting that TSV Hartberg have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading & In-Play

SCR Altach — key trading statistics (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

TSV Hartberg — key trading statistics (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 50% versus TSV Hartberg 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 44% | TSV Hartberg 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.12 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.812 / defence 1.092 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.896 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.454 / away 1.222. Data: 40 SCR Altach games / 40 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SCR Altach 31% | Draw 35% | TSV Hartberg 35%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 3.23 | Draw 2.86 | TSV Hartberg 2.86. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: SCR Altach 70% | TSV Hartberg 50% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights