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Sturm Graz cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over SCR Altach.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sturm Graz beat SCR Altach 0-2 at Cashpoint-Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 0.72 xG and Sturm Graz 1.38 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 0.81 / defence 0.83 against Sturm Graz attack 1.36 / defence 0.68, drawn from 30/29 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 19% | Draw 28% | Sturm Graz 53%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 33%, Sturm Graz 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SCR Altach's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Sturm Graz's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.97. That form edge translated into the three points. SCR Altach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights