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Poisson rates Sturm Graz at 53% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 9 as SCR Altach welcome Sturm Graz to Cashpoint-Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 5 October 2025 at 13:30 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, SCR Altach stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Cashpoint-Arena, SCR Altach have gone 3W 6D 1L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Across all Bundesliga games this season, Sturm Graz have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Sturm Graz have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

On the road, Sturm Graz have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sturm Graz are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H Record

The previous 8 encounters between these sides heavily favour Sturm Graz, who boast 6 victories compared to 0 for SCR Altach.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.

It is worth noting that Sturm Graz have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

In-Play Profile

SCR Altach in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

Sturm Graz in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 44% versus Sturm Graz 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 33% | Sturm Graz 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 0.72 xG and Sturm Graz 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.809 / defence 0.833 | Sturm Graz attack 1.358 / defence 0.678. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.221. Sturm Graz's defence strength of 0.678 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Sturm Graz have an above-average attack strength of 1.358 — the away xG of 1.38 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 30 SCR Altach games / 29 Sturm Graz games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SCR Altach 19% | Draw 28% | Sturm Graz 53%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 5.26 | Draw 3.57 | Sturm Graz 1.89. Sturm Graz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Sturm Graz are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.10 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates are neutral: SCR Altach 50% | Sturm Graz 60%.

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