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SCR Altach cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Ried.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SCR Altach beat Ried 2-0 at Cashpoint-Arena, Relegation Group - 32, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 1.55 xG and Ried 0.91 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Ried landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 1.01 / defence 0.92 against Ried attack 0.87 / defence 1.14, drawn from 44/22 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 52% | Draw 27% | Ried 21%, with SCR Altach to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 42%, Ried 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SCR Altach's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.

Ried's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SCR Altach 1.26 PPG, Ried 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SCR Altach win broke the near-deadlock. SCR Altach (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Ried (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights