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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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SCR Altach and Red Bull Salzburg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at CASHPOINT Arena, Regular Season - 21, as SCR Altach and Red Bull Salzburg drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 0.84 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 0.92 xG, a combined 1.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 0.72 / defence 0.98 against Red Bull Salzburg attack 0.77 / defence 0.76, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 28% | Draw 40% | Red Bull Salzburg 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 44%, Red Bull Salzburg 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SCR Altach's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 0.87. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights