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Lask Linz cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over SCR Altach.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lask Linz beat SCR Altach 0-2 at CASHPOINT Arena, Relegation Round - 1, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 1.13 xG and Lask Linz 1.26 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. SCR Altach fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 0.73 / defence 1.00 against Lask Linz attack 1.05 / defence 0.97, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 30% | Draw 34% | Lask Linz 36%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 44%, Lask Linz 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SCR Altach's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Lask Linz's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Lask Linz arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 0.87. Form held, and they took the win. SCR Altach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lask Linz (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights