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Poisson model favours Lask Linz (36%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as SCR Altach face Lask Linz.

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Pre-Match Analysis

SCR Altach and Lask Linz meet at CASHPOINT Arena in Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 1. This fixture gets under way on Friday 28 March 2025 at 18:30 UTC.

Form

SCR Altach (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W D L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.

SCR Altach's home record at CASHPOINT Arena: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Lask Linz's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Lask Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Lask Linz's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Lask Linz are 1.00 PPG clear of SCR Altach in recent Bundesliga fixtures (1.70 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — SCR Altach have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Lask Linz in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

Across the last 6 meetings, Lask Linz have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to SCR Altach's 1, with 1 draws in the mix.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2024, ended 1–2 with Lask Linz winning.

It is worth noting that Lask Linz have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading Data

SCR Altach goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

Lask Linz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 50% versus Lask Linz 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 44% | Lask Linz 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.13 xG and Lask Linz 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.726 / defence 0.998 | Lask Linz attack 1.052 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 1.597 / away 1.199. SCR Altach's attack strength of 0.726 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 44 SCR Altach games / 44 Lask Linz games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SCR Altach 30% | Draw 34% | Lask Linz 36%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 3.33 | Draw 2.94 | Lask Linz 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Lask Linz as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lask Linz if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SCR Altach 60% | Lask Linz 80% BTTS from recent games.

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