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Prediction vindicated as SCR Altach edge out FC BW Linz 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SCR Altach beat FC BW Linz 1-0 at Cashpoint-Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 1.62 xG and FC BW Linz 0.99 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC BW Linz landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 1.02 / defence 0.93 against FC BW Linz attack 0.82 / defence 1.17, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 52% | Draw 25% | FC BW Linz 23%, with SCR Altach to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 41%, FC BW Linz 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SCR Altach's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.

FC BW Linz's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SCR Altach 0.96 PPG, FC BW Linz 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SCR Altach win broke the near-deadlock. SCR Altach (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. FC BW Linz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights