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Stalemate at SCR Altach's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SCR Altach and Austria Klagenfurt finished level at 0-0 at CASHPOINT Arena, Relegation Round - 9, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 1.48 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 0.97 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. SCR Altach fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Austria Klagenfurt landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 0.79 / defence 0.99 against Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.82 / defence 1.17, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 46% | Draw 32% | Austria Klagenfurt 22%, with SCR Altach to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 44%, Austria Klagenfurt 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SCR Altach's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Austria Klagenfurt's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SCR Altach 0.89 PPG, Austria Klagenfurt 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SCR Altach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Austria Klagenfurt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.06 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights