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Poisson model rates SCR Altach at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this SCR Altach vs Austria Klagenfurt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

SCR Altach host Austria Klagenfurt at CASHPOINT Arena in Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 May 2025 at 16:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Bundesliga games this season, SCR Altach have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

In front of their own supporters this season, SCR Altach have posted 1W 6D 3L at CASHPOINT Arena — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Austria Klagenfurt — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.90 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Austria Klagenfurt have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 3.10 conceded per game.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (SCR Altach) versus 0.60 (Austria Klagenfurt). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

Despite the anticipated home advantage, Austria Klagenfurt have the better historical record — 5 wins from 9 previous contests against 1 for SCR Altach.

The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2025, ended 3–2 with SCR Altach winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Austria Klagenfurt have won 5 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Data

SCR Altach trading profile (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

Austria Klagenfurt trading profile (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 34% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 48% versus Austria Klagenfurt 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 44% | Austria Klagenfurt 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.48 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.789 / defence 0.993 | Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.816 / defence 1.173. League average goals — home 1.598 / away 1.201. SCR Altach's attack strength of 0.789 is below the league average — the 1.48 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 44 SCR Altach games / 44 Austria Klagenfurt games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SCR Altach 46% | Draw 32% | Austria Klagenfurt 22%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 2.17 | Draw 3.12 | Austria Klagenfurt 4.55. SCR Altach hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates SCR Altach as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SCR Altach offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting point in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SCR Altach 70% | Austria Klagenfurt 50% BTTS from recent games.

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