🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Ried edge out Wolfsberger AC 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ried beat Wolfsberger AC 2-1 at Innviertel Arena, Semi-finals, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ried 1.29 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.20 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ried attack 0.81 / defence 1.09 against Wolfsberger AC attack 0.95 / defence 1.19, drawn from 22/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ried 38% | Draw 28% | Wolfsberger AC 34%, with Ried to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ried 44%, Wolfsberger AC 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ried's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ried 1.31 PPG, Wolfsberger AC 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ried win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights