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TSV Hartberg cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Ried.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

TSV Hartberg beat Ried 0-2 at Innviertel Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ried 1.36 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.99 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Ried fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ried attack 0.92 / defence 1.31 against TSV Hartberg attack 1.18 / defence 1.06, drawn from 5/27 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ried 26% | Draw 22% | TSV Hartberg 52%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ried 60%, TSV Hartberg 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ried's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

TSV Hartberg's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ried 1.40 PPG, TSV Hartberg 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the TSV Hartberg win broke the near-deadlock. Ried managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward. TSV Hartberg conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights