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Poisson rates TSV Hartberg at 52% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ried vs TSV Hartberg encounter.

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Full Analysis

Innviertel Arena plays host to Ried versus TSV Hartberg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Sunday 14 September 2025 at 13:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Ried have collected 1.40 PPG across 5 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 1D 2L. Last five: D L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Ried have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

TSV Hartberg (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. TSV Hartberg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

TSV Hartberg's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Ried against 1.60 for TSV Hartberg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

Head-to-Head

TSV Hartberg hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 8 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 8 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 May 2023, ended 0–2 with TSV Hartberg winning.

It is worth noting that TSV Hartberg have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading & In-Play

Ried — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%.

TSV Hartberg — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ried 60% and TSV Hartberg 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ried 60% | TSV Hartberg 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ried 1.36 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ried attack 0.924 / defence 1.310 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.183 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 1.388 / away 1.284. Data: 5 Ried games / 27 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Ried 26% | Draw 22% | TSV Hartberg 52%. Fair-value odds: Ried 3.85 | Draw 4.55 | TSV Hartberg 1.92. TSV Hartberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.36 / 1.99) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, TSV Hartberg are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 3.35 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ried 60% | TSV Hartberg 50% BTTS from recent games.

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