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Sturm Graz cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Ried.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat Ried 1-3 at Innviertel Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ried 1.21 xG and Sturm Graz 1.68 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sturm Graz outscored their 1.68 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ried attack 0.96 / defence 1.21 against Sturm Graz attack 1.09 / defence 0.85, drawn from 2/24 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Ried 27% | Draw 24% | Sturm Graz 49%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ried 50%, Sturm Graz 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.50. That form edge translated into the three points. Ried shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sturm Graz scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.