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TSV Hartberg cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Red Bull Salzburg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

TSV Hartberg beat Red Bull Salzburg 1-3 at Red Bull Arena, Championship Group - 32, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Red Bull Salzburg 1.19 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.14 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. TSV Hartberg outscored their 1.14 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.00 / defence 1.02 against TSV Hartberg attack 0.97 / defence 0.89, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Red Bull Salzburg 37% | Draw 30% | TSV Hartberg 34%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual TSV Hartberg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Red Bull Salzburg 57%, TSV Hartberg 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

TSV Hartberg's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Red Bull Salzburg 1.67 PPG, TSV Hartberg 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the TSV Hartberg win broke the near-deadlock. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights