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Sturm Graz cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Red Bull Salzburg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sturm Graz beat Red Bull Salzburg 0-2 at Red Bull Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Red Bull Salzburg 1.52 xG and Sturm Graz 1.44 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Red Bull Salzburg fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.40 / defence 0.88 against Sturm Graz attack 1.29 / defence 0.78, drawn from 28/27 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Red Bull Salzburg 39% | Draw 24% | Sturm Graz 36%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Sturm Graz win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Red Bull Salzburg 60%, Sturm Graz 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (37 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Sturm Graz's trading profile (37 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Red Bull Salzburg 1.76 PPG, Sturm Graz 1.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sturm Graz win broke the near-deadlock. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.32 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights