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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Sturm Graz defy the odds to beat Red Bull Salzburg 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sturm Graz beat Red Bull Salzburg 1-2 at Red Bull Arena, Championship Round - 3, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Red Bull Salzburg 1.86 xG and Sturm Graz 1.00 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Red Bull Salzburg fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Sturm Graz outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.10 / defence 0.78 against Sturm Graz attack 1.08 / defence 1.06, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Red Bull Salzburg 55% | Draw 28% | Sturm Graz 17%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Sturm Graz win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Red Bull Salzburg 48%, Sturm Graz 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Sturm Graz's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Red Bull Salzburg 1.98 PPG, Sturm Graz 2.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sturm Graz win broke the near-deadlock. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.43 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights