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Red Bull Salzburg cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sturm Graz.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Red Bull Salzburg beat Sturm Graz 3-1 at Red Bull Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Red Bull Salzburg 1.70 xG and Sturm Graz 1.12 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Red Bull Salzburg beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.13 / defence 0.88 against Sturm Graz attack 1.06 / defence 1.00, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Red Bull Salzburg 48% | Draw 30% | Sturm Graz 22%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Red Bull Salzburg 49%, Sturm Graz 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Sturm Graz's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Red Bull Salzburg 1.92 PPG, Sturm Graz 2.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Red Bull Salzburg win broke the near-deadlock. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights