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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Red Bull Salzburg edge out Rapid Vienna 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Red Bull Salzburg beat Rapid Vienna 2-1 at Red Bull Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Red Bull Salzburg 1.48 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.25 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.32 / defence 0.96 against Rapid Vienna attack 1.03 / defence 0.84, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Red Bull Salzburg 43% | Draw 25% | Rapid Vienna 32%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Red Bull Salzburg 60%, Rapid Vienna 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Rapid Vienna's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Red Bull Salzburg 1.78 PPG, Rapid Vienna 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Red Bull Salzburg win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights