Red Bull Salzburg 0-0 Grazer AK – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg at 76% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Red Bull Salzburg vs Grazer AK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Grazer AK travel to Red Bull Arena to take on Red Bull Salzburg. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 November 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Red Bull Salzburg stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Red Bull Salzburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Red Bull Salzburg's home record at Red Bull Arena: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 3.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Red Bull Salzburg are significantly better at Red Bull Arena than their overall form suggests.
Grazer AK — All Games: 0W 5D 5L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Grazer AK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Grazer AK's away record: 0W 2D 4L from 6 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Red Bull Salzburg are in the better shape of the two on current Bundesliga data — 1.50 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Red Bull Salzburg, 0 for Grazer AK and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Aug 2024, ended 3–2 with Red Bull Salzburg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Red Bull Salzburg trading profile (11 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Grazer AK trading profile (11 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Red Bull Salzburg 54% and Grazer AK 82% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Red Bull Salzburg 64% | Grazer AK 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Red Bull Salzburg 2.93 xG and Grazer AK 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.283 / defence 0.867 | Grazer AK attack 1.003 / defence 1.436. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.178. Red Bull Salzburg carry an above-average attack strength of 1.283 — their λ of 2.93 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Grazer AK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.436 — this is suppressing Red Bull Salzburg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Red Bull Salzburg games / 11 Grazer AK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Red Bull Salzburg 76% | Draw 14% | Grazer AK 10%. Fair-value odds: Red Bull Salzburg 1.32 | Draw 7.14 | Grazer AK 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Red Bull Salzburg (76%) — a 66pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.96. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.96 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.93 / 1.02) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg as the most likely outcome at 76% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.96 combined xG gives a 76% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 4.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Red Bull Salzburg 70% | Grazer AK 83% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Red Bull Salzburg vs Grazer AK | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Red Bull Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Nov 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Red Bull Salzburg 76% | Draw 14% | Grazer AK 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 61% | xG Red Bull Salzburg 2.93 / Grazer AK 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.283 / def 0.867 | Grazer AK attack 1.003 / def 1.436 | league avg home 1.592 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Red Bull Salzburg (76%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.93
Red Bull Salzburg xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Grazer AK xG
61%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Red Bull Salzburg vs Grazer AK kick off?
Red Bull Salzburg vs Grazer AK kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 2 November 2024 at Red Bull Arena.
What was the final score in Red Bull Salzburg vs Grazer AK?
Red Bull Salzburg 0 - 0 Grazer AK.
Where is Red Bull Salzburg vs Grazer AK being played?
The match is being played at Red Bull Arena.
What competition is Red Bull Salzburg vs Grazer AK part of?
Red Bull Salzburg vs Grazer AK is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Red Bull Salzburg vs Grazer AK?
Our statistical model gives Red Bull Salzburg a 76% chance of winning, Grazer AK a 10% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Red Bull Salzburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Red Bull Salzburg vs Grazer AK?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Red Bull Salzburg and Grazer AK will score (BTTS).
Will Red Bull Salzburg vs Grazer AK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Red Bull Salzburg and Grazer AK?
Record (1 meetings): Red Bull Salzburg 1W | Draws 0 | Grazer AK 0W.
What form are Red Bull Salzburg and Grazer AK in?
Red Bull Salzburg (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Grazer AK (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Red Bull Salzburg vs Grazer AK?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Red Bull Salzburg's attacking strength (1.28x league average) is weighed against Grazer AK's defensive record (1.44x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.93. The same calculation in reverse, Grazer AK's attack versus Red Bull Salzburg's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.4%. Close behind: 3-1 (8.2%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Red Bull Salzburg Win
76%
1.31
14%
7.23
10%
9.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.2%
Home win
3 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.93
Red Bull Salzburg xG
Total xG
3.96
1.02
Grazer AK xG
1.31
76%
Home win
7.23
14%
Draw
9.90
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
5%
18.77
Win to Nil
27%
3.66
1%
185.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.0 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Red Bull Salzburg vs Grazer AK?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.4%.
How many goals are Red Bull Salzburg and Grazer AK expected to score?
The model projects 2.93 expected goals for Red Bull Salzburg and 1.02 for Grazer AK, a combined total of 3.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Red Bull Salzburg vs Grazer AK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 76%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Red Bull Salzburg's recent record stands at 7W 2D 2L from 11 games, a 2.09 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Red Bull Salzburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Grazer AK, meanwhile, have gone 0W 5D 6L across 11 games — 0.45 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Grazer AK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Red Bull Salzburg by 1.64 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Grazer AK heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Red Bull Salzburg have managed 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — 3.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.09 PPG overall — Red Bull Salzburg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Grazer AK's away record stands at 0W 1D 3L across 4 trips, a 0.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Red Bull Salzburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Red Bull Salzburg are averaging 2.45 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Grazer AK are on 1.27 scored and 2.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Grazer AK in 82%.
Defensively: Red Bull Salzburg have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
Grazer AK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Red Bull Salzburg and Grazer AK in coming into this match?
Red Bull Salzburg have gone 7W 2D 2L in their last 11 games (2.09 PPG), while Grazer AK have gone 0W 5D 6L in their last 11 (0.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Red Bull Salzburg at home or Grazer AK away?
Red Bull Salzburg's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Red Bull Salzburg at home: 3.00 PPG; Grazer AK away: 0.25 PPG.
Have Red Bull Salzburg or Grazer AK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Red Bull Salzburg have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Grazer AK in 9%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Red Bull Salzburg and Grazer AK runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Aug 2025, when Red Bull Salzburg won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Red Bull Salzburg's record when hosting Grazer AK specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Red Bull Salzburg
2
Draws
0
Grazer AK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Red Bull Salzburg and Grazer AK?
From 4 meetings on record, Red Bull Salzburg have won 2, Grazer AK have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Red Bull Salzburg and Grazer AK last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Grazer AK 1-1 Red Bull Salzburg.
Who has won more matches between Red Bull Salzburg and Grazer AK?
Red Bull Salzburg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Grazer AK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Red Bull Salzburg at 75%, Grazer AK at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Red Bull Salzburg and 75% for Grazer AK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Red Bull Salzburg home games / Grazer AK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Red Bull Salzburg play Grazer AK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Red Bull Salzburg's games and 100% of Grazer AK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Red Bull Salzburg vs Grazer AK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Red Bull Salzburg's matches and 75% of Grazer AK's.
Do Red Bull Salzburg and Grazer AK tend to score early?
Red Bull Salzburg have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Grazer AK in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Red Bull Salzburg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Red Bull Salzburg and Grazer AK finished level at 0-0 at Red Bull Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Red Bull Salzburg 2.93 xG and Grazer AK 1.02 xG, a combined 3.96. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Red Bull Salzburg fell 2.9 short of their projected output. Grazer AK landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.28 / defence 0.87 against Grazer AK attack 1.00 / defence 1.44, drawn from 31/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Red Bull Salzburg 76% | Draw 14% | Grazer AK 10%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 76%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 91% and missed. Over 3.5 was 56% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Red Bull Salzburg 64%, Grazer AK 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (11 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Grazer AK's trading profile (11 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 82% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 0.45. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 4.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Grazer AK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.