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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Red Bull Salzburg and FC BW Linz share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Red Bull Salzburg and FC BW Linz finished level at 2-2 at Red Bull Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Red Bull Salzburg 2.36 xG and FC BW Linz 0.67 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. FC BW Linz outscored their 0.67 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.47 / defence 0.70 against FC BW Linz attack 0.73 / defence 1.14, drawn from 26/26 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Red Bull Salzburg 74% | Draw 19% | FC BW Linz 7%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 74%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Red Bull Salzburg 58%, FC BW Linz 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

FC BW Linz's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC BW Linz (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights