Red Bull Salzburg 3-1 Austria Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Austria Vienna at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Austria Vienna make the trip to Red Bull Arena to face Red Bull Salzburg in Bundesliga, Championship Group - 28. The match kicks off on Wednesday 22 April 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Red Bull Salzburg have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Red Bull Salzburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Red Bull Salzburg's home record at Red Bull Arena: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Austria Vienna (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W L D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Austria Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Austria Vienna have gone 6W 0D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Red Bull Salzburg against 1.40 for Austria Vienna. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Red Bull Salzburg have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Austria Vienna in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Red Bull Salzburg, who have won 6 of the last 8 meetings against Austria Vienna — a 1D 1W return for the visitors.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2026, ended 3–1 with Red Bull Salzburg winning.
The historical record gives Red Bull Salzburg a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
Red Bull Salzburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games).
Austria Vienna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Red Bull Salzburg 61% versus Austria Vienna 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Red Bull Salzburg 58% | Austria Vienna 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Red Bull Salzburg 1.26 xG and Austria Vienna 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Red Bull Salzburg attack 0.997 / defence 1.019 | Austria Vienna attack 1.209 / defence 0.936. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Austria Vienna have an above-average attack strength of 1.209 — the away xG of 1.41 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 Red Bull Salzburg games / 44 Austria Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Red Bull Salzburg 33% | Draw 27% | Austria Vienna 40%. Fair-value odds: Red Bull Salzburg 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | Austria Vienna 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Austria Vienna at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Austria Vienna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Red Bull Salzburg 60% | Austria Vienna 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Group - 28 | Venue: Red Bull Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Apr 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Red Bull Salzburg 33% | Draw 27% | Austria Vienna 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Red Bull Salzburg 1.26 / Austria Vienna 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Red Bull Salzburg attack 0.997 / def 1.019 | Austria Vienna attack 1.209 / def 0.936 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Austria Vienna (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Red Bull Salzburg xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Austria Vienna xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna kick off?
Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 22 April 2026 at Red Bull Arena.
What was the final score in Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna?
Red Bull Salzburg 3 - 1 Austria Vienna.
Where is Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Red Bull Arena.
What competition is Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna part of?
Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna is a Championship Group - 28 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Red Bull Salzburg a 33% chance of winning, Austria Vienna a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Austria Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Vienna?
Record (8 meetings): Red Bull Salzburg 6W | Draws 1 | Austria Vienna 1W.
What form are Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Vienna in?
Red Bull Salzburg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Austria Vienna (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Red Bull Salzburg's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Austria Vienna's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. Flip it around — Austria Vienna's attack (1.21x) against Red Bull Salzburg's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Vienna Win
33%
3.06
27%
3.65
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Red Bull Salzburg xG
Total xG
2.67
1.41
Austria Vienna xG
3.06
33%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
24%
4.11
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
8%
12.59
11%
8.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.8 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.3 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.7 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Red Bull Salzburg and 1.41 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 59 outings, Red Bull Salzburg have picked up 1.71 PPG on a 28W 17D 14L record — L-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Red Bull Salzburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Austria Vienna's form line: 30W 10D 19L from 59 games, 1.69 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-L. The sample for Austria Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.71 PPG for Red Bull Salzburg against 1.69 for Austria Vienna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Red Bull Salzburg have posted 1.79 PPG from 29 outings (15W 7D 7L).
On the road, Austria Vienna have gone 15W 4D 10L from 29 away games — 1.69 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Red Bull Salzburg are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Austria Vienna are on 1.47 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Red Bull Salzburg have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 59 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
Austria Vienna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Vienna in coming into this match?
Red Bull Salzburg have gone 28W 17D 14L in their last 59 games (1.71 PPG), while Austria Vienna have gone 30W 10D 19L in their last 59 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Red Bull Salzburg at home or Austria Vienna away?
Red Bull Salzburg's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Red Bull Salzburg at home: 1.79 PPG; Austria Vienna away: 1.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Red Bull Salzburg have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Red Bull Salzburg won 0-3 on 26 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Red Bull Salzburg have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Austria Vienna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Red Bull Salzburg
1
Draws
1
Austria Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, Red Bull Salzburg have won 8, Austria Vienna have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Red Bull Salzburg 4-1 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Vienna?
Red Bull Salzburg have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Red Bull Salzburg 59%, Austria Vienna 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 66% (Red Bull Salzburg) and 48% (Austria Vienna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Red Bull Salzburg keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Austria Vienna in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Red Bull Salzburg home games / Austria Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Red Bull Salzburg play Austria Vienna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Red Bull Salzburg's games and 55% of Austria Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Red Bull Salzburg's matches and 48% of Austria Vienna's.
Do Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Vienna tend to score early?
Red Bull Salzburg have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Austria Vienna in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Red Bull Salzburg cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Austria Vienna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Red Bull Salzburg beat Austria Vienna 3-1 at Red Bull Arena, Championship Group - 28, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Red Bull Salzburg 1.26 xG and Austria Vienna 1.41 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Red Bull Salzburg beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.00 / defence 1.02 against Austria Vienna attack 1.21 / defence 0.94, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Red Bull Salzburg 33% | Draw 27% | Austria Vienna 40%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Red Bull Salzburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Red Bull Salzburg 58%, Austria Vienna 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Austria Vienna's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Red Bull Salzburg 1.71 PPG, Austria Vienna 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Red Bull Salzburg win broke the near-deadlock. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.