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Wolfsberger AC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Rapid Vienna.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Wolfsberger AC beat Rapid Vienna 1-3 at Allianz Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rapid Vienna 1.54 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.32 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Wolfsberger AC outscored their 1.32 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rapid Vienna attack 0.97 / defence 0.87 against Wolfsberger AC attack 1.24 / defence 1.03, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rapid Vienna 42% | Draw 26% | Wolfsberger AC 32%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Wolfsberger AC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rapid Vienna 35%, Wolfsberger AC 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rapid Vienna's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rapid Vienna 1.52 PPG, Wolfsberger AC 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wolfsberger AC win broke the near-deadlock. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights