Rapid Vienna 1-3 Wolfsberger AC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rapid Vienna at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rapid Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rapid Vienna and Wolfsberger AC meet at Allianz Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 8 February 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Rapid Vienna's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W D L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rapid Vienna's home record at Allianz Stadion: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Rapid Vienna are significantly better at Allianz Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Wolfsberger AC (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Wolfsberger AC have posted 7W 0D 3L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.10 exceeds their overall 1.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Rapid Vienna against 1.60 for Wolfsberger AC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Rapid Vienna, 0 for Wolfsberger AC and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Rapid Vienna half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Wolfsberger AC half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rapid Vienna 46% versus Wolfsberger AC 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rapid Vienna 35% | Wolfsberger AC 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rapid Vienna 1.54 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rapid Vienna attack 0.969 / defence 0.874 | Wolfsberger AC attack 1.240 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.541 / away 1.217. Wolfsberger AC have an above-average attack strength of 1.240 — the away xG of 1.32 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 38 Rapid Vienna games / 38 Wolfsberger AC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 42% | Draw 26% | Wolfsberger AC 32%. Fair-value odds: Rapid Vienna 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Wolfsberger AC 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rapid Vienna as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rapid Vienna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Rapid Vienna 40% | Wolfsberger AC 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rapid Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Allianz Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Feb 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 42% | Draw 26% | Wolfsberger AC 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Rapid Vienna 1.54 / Wolfsberger AC 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Rapid Vienna attack 0.969 / def 0.874 | Wolfsberger AC attack 1.240 / def 1.029 | league avg home 1.541 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Rapid Vienna (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Rapid Vienna xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Wolfsberger AC xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rapid Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC kick off?
Rapid Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 8 February 2025 at Allianz Stadion.
What was the final score in Rapid Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC?
Rapid Vienna 1 - 3 Wolfsberger AC.
Where is Rapid Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadion.
What competition is Rapid Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC part of?
Rapid Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Rapid Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our statistical model gives Rapid Vienna a 42% chance of winning, Wolfsberger AC a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Rapid Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rapid Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Rapid Vienna and Wolfsberger AC will score (BTTS).
Will Rapid Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and Wolfsberger AC?
Record (4 meetings): Rapid Vienna 2W | Draws 2 | Wolfsberger AC 0W.
What form are Rapid Vienna and Wolfsberger AC in?
Rapid Vienna (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-L-D. Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Rapid Vienna's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Wolfsberger AC's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. Flip it around — Wolfsberger AC's attack (1.24x) against Rapid Vienna's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rapid Vienna Win
42%
2.38
26%
3.88
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Rapid Vienna xG
Total xG
2.86
1.32
Wolfsberger AC xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
11%
8.90
7%
14.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.6 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.7 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.0 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rapid Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Rapid Vienna and Wolfsberger AC expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Rapid Vienna and 1.32 for Wolfsberger AC, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Rapid Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rapid Vienna come into this having played 48 games, going 18W 19D 11L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-D. The sample for Rapid Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Wolfsberger AC sit at 1.44 PPG from 48 outings (19W 12D 17L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Wolfsberger AC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for Rapid Vienna against 1.44 for Wolfsberger AC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Rapid Vienna's home form reads 9W 8D 6L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, Wolfsberger AC have taken 1.57 points per game from 23 outings (10W 6D 7L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rapid Vienna are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Wolfsberger AC are on 1.48 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Defensively: Rapid Vienna have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rapid Vienna
Blended
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rapid Vienna and Wolfsberger AC in coming into this match?
Rapid Vienna have gone 18W 19D 11L in their last 48 games (1.52 PPG), while Wolfsberger AC have gone 19W 12D 17L in their last 48 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rapid Vienna at home or Wolfsberger AC away?
Wolfsberger AC's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rapid Vienna at home: 1.52 PPG; Wolfsberger AC away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Rapid Vienna or Wolfsberger AC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rapid Vienna have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Wolfsberger AC in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since February 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Rapid Vienna have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wolfsberger AC won 5-1 on 20 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rapid Vienna have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Wolfsberger AC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Rapid Vienna
2
Draws
3
Wolfsberger AC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and Wolfsberger AC?
From 10 meetings on record, Rapid Vienna have won 5, Wolfsberger AC have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rapid Vienna and Wolfsberger AC last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when Wolfsberger AC 0-3 Rapid Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Rapid Vienna and Wolfsberger AC?
Rapid Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rapid Vienna 52%, Wolfsberger AC 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Rapid Vienna) and 52% (Wolfsberger AC).
On the defensive side: Rapid Vienna keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Wolfsberger AC in 35%; Wolfsberger AC in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rapid Vienna home games / Wolfsberger AC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rapid Vienna play Wolfsberger AC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Rapid Vienna's recent matches and 44% of Wolfsberger AC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rapid Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Rapid Vienna's recent games and 52% of Wolfsberger AC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rapid Vienna and Wolfsberger AC tend to score early?
Rapid Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Wolfsberger AC in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wolfsberger AC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Rapid Vienna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wolfsberger AC beat Rapid Vienna 1-3 at Allianz Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rapid Vienna 1.54 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.32 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Wolfsberger AC outscored their 1.32 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rapid Vienna attack 0.97 / defence 0.87 against Wolfsberger AC attack 1.24 / defence 1.03, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rapid Vienna 42% | Draw 26% | Wolfsberger AC 32%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Wolfsberger AC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rapid Vienna 35%, Wolfsberger AC 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rapid Vienna 1.52 PPG, Wolfsberger AC 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wolfsberger AC win broke the near-deadlock. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.