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TSV Hartberg cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Rapid Vienna.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

TSV Hartberg beat Rapid Vienna 0-2 at Allianz Stadion, Championship Group - 28, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rapid Vienna 1.15 xG and TSV Hartberg 0.99 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Rapid Vienna fell 1.2 short of their projected output. TSV Hartberg outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rapid Vienna attack 0.98 / defence 0.89 against TSV Hartberg attack 0.97 / defence 0.87, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rapid Vienna 39% | Draw 31% | TSV Hartberg 30%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual TSV Hartberg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rapid Vienna 48%, TSV Hartberg 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rapid Vienna's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

TSV Hartberg's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rapid Vienna 1.42 PPG, TSV Hartberg 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the TSV Hartberg win broke the near-deadlock. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights