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Shock result as Rapid Vienna defy the odds to beat Sturm Graz 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rapid Vienna beat Sturm Graz 2-1 at Allianz Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rapid Vienna 1.06 xG and Sturm Graz 2.23 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Rapid Vienna beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sturm Graz landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rapid Vienna attack 0.98 / defence 1.09 against Sturm Graz attack 1.49 / defence 0.82, drawn from 33/32 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rapid Vienna 17% | Draw 19% | Sturm Graz 64%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a Rapid Vienna win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rapid Vienna 55%, Sturm Graz 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rapid Vienna's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Sturm Graz's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.43. Form was overturned, with Rapid Vienna winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights